Friday, August 6, 2010

Statistics...damn statistics!

Ok, so here I am, 12 weeks out of my first marathon (Auckland, NZ) and I'm curious as to the time I'll be able to finish in. I'm not entertaining a DNF by the way.
As it's my first, I'll be happy with finishing. But, I'd like to figure out the correct/best pace to go out at.
Of course I'm hoping to start slowly and save something for the business end of it. So armed with my recent PB over 5k of 23:24, I plugged that in to the McMillan calculator and it claims I'll finish (if everything goes according to plan) in 3 hours and 48 minutes. To be honest I think that's pretty quick for a first time, showing an average pace of 5:25/k.
The calculator also shows that I should be finishing a half marathon in 1 hour 48minutes with an average pace of 5:08/k, again I think it's a bit fast, but I have the Sydney half marathon coming up in about four weeks, and I'm hoping to finish in less that two hours, so that will be a good test.
I'll update the stats again after that one!

Take it easy,
Eoin

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